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WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 07-29-10 at 2:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-29-10 67   66 81   84 65   62 80   84 65   64 79   84 64   66 83   86
07-28-10 74 69.4 77 87 88.2 89 65   69 84   84 63   64 81   81 64   68 79   79
07-27-10 66 78.9 68 90 90.8 88 73 69.4 70 87 88.2 87 67   67 82   81 64   62 81   82
07-26-10 62 69.7 58 84 84.8 84 64 78.9 65 88 90.8 89 72 69.4 69 88 88.2 93 68   69 82   82
07-25-10 66 60.0 73 82 80.2 82 62 69.7 63 83 84.8 85 64 78.9 64 85 90.8 90 71 69.4 68 91 88.2 89
07-23-10 76 74.3 78 92 89.4 100 75 60.0 76 89 80.2 96 67 69.7 70 82 84.8 83 63 78.9 65 82 90.8 81
07-22-10 71 80.3 70 84 90.6 80 76 74.3 76 92 89.4 97 73 60.0 74 87 80.2 88 68 69.7 72 82 84.8 78
07-21-10 70 70.4 73 84 95.3 89 70 80.3 69 84 90.6 79 75 74.3 72 92 89.4 89 70 60.0 76 85 80.2 91
07-20-10 68 74.6 71 83 90.2 90 69 70.4 71 87 95.3 85 69 80.3 72 87 90.6 76 72 74.3 73 90 89.4 92
07-19-10 68 71.4 71 84 87.9 90 65 74.6 71 82 90.2 84 69 70.4 70 89 95.3 83 68 80.3 71 87 90.6 77
07-18-10 70 72.8 10 89 94.3 27 68 71.4 17 85 87.9 27 66 74.6 24 86 90.2 31 70 70.4 31 92 95.3 32
07-17-10 71 76.0 72 92 96.3 91 73 72.8 73 89 94.3 89 68 71.4 68 87 87.9 87 69 74.6 68 86 90.2 84
07-16-10 67 74.3 67 91 95.0 89 70 76.0 71 91 96.3 92 72 72.8 74 90 94.3 90 69 71.4 68 87 87.9 89
07-15-10 76 68.0 77 91 92.5 90 67 74.3 70 90 95.0 87 70 76.0 69 89 96.3 90 69 72.8 72 89 94.3 86
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 5 4 3 4 2 3 3 4 2 4 3 3 2 2
% Succ 15.4   7.7 38.5   30.8 25   33.3 16.7   25 27.3   36.4 18.2   36.4 30   30 20   20
Ave Error 5.8   11 3.9   9 6.8   10 4.9   11 5.9   9 4.1   10 5.6   9 3.7   12
Std Dev 3.6   16 3.1   17 5.5   15 3.2   16 5.6   14 2.8   17 5.8   8 3.1   9

Afternoon Forecasts
Updated: 07-29-10 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-29-10 81   84 67   65 80   87 67   66 79   87 64   67 83   91 67   70
07-28-10 85 88.2 89 65 65.5 69 82   85 65   67 80   82 66   68 79   81 65   67
07-27-10 85 90.8 88 75 77.4 70 85 88.2 86 65 65.5 66 85   83 65   63 85   83 65   67
07-26-10 84 84.8 84 69 67.4 65 88 90.8 87 74 77.4 68 87 88.2 91 68 65.5 65 82   79 65   59
07-25-10 82 80.2 83 62 58.6 63 84 84.8 85 64 67.4 64 88 90.8 89 72 77.4 68 88 88.2 95 70 65.5 72
07-24-10 86 89.4 87 66 68.2 68 82 80.2 80 62 58.6 65 83 84.8 85 64 67.4 65 85 90.8 86 70 77.4 70
07-23-10 93 96.0 92 75 74.8 73 89 89.4 91 67 68.2 69 82 80.2 77 62 58.6 62 82 84.8 82 66 67.4 67
07-22-10 84 90.6 80 77 72.4 73 93 96.0 92 75 74.8 72 87 89.4 86 69 68.2 69 83 80.2 80 63 58.6 65
07-21-10 87 95.3 89 71 69.2 70 84 90.6 78 77 72.4 73 92 96.0 92 72 74.8 76 85 89.4 87 66 68.2 67
07-20-10 82 90.2 87 71 71.8 71 88 95.3 87 72 69.2 69 85 90.6 80 75 72.4 71 90 96.0 91 70 74.8 74
07-19-10 85 87.9 90 67 69.7 69 82 90.2 78 69 71.8 68 87 95.3 83 69 69.2 70 87 90.6 80 72 72.4 73
07-18-10 89 94.3 10 68 69.1 27 84 87.9 17 66 69.7 27 83 90.2 24 67 71.8 31 85 95.3 31 68 69.2 32
07-17-10 90 96.3 93 74 73.0 74 92 94.3 89 68 69.1 69 86 87.9 87 66 69.7 69 86 90.2 83 70 71.8 72
07-16-10 90 95.0 89 69 72.4 67 92 96.3 89 73 73.0 71 90 94.3 91 68 69.1 68 87 87.9 87 68 69.7 66
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 2 7 7 3 3 5 6 4 3 3 7 2 2 5 5
% Succ 15.4   15.4 53.8   53.8 25   25 41.7   50 36.4   27.3 27.3   63.6 20   20 50   50
Ave Error 4.7   10 2   5 3.7   11 2.3   6 3.8   10 2.8   6 4.1   11 3   6
Std Dev 2.6   22 1.3   11 2.8   19 1.6   11 2.8   8 1.9   5 3   9 2.6   5

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 07-29-10 at 1:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-29-10 81   85 67   64 80   86 67   67 79   88 64   66 83   90 67   68
07-28-10 85 88.2 91 65 65.5 71 82   86 65   68 80   82 66   67 79   81 64   66
07-27-10 89 90.8 91 73 77.4 73 87 88.2 85 66 65.5 68 82   83 64   63 81   84 66   67
07-26-10 84 84.8 89 69 67.4 68 88 90.8 90 74 77.4 69 87 88.2 93 68 65.5 65 82   81 65   60
07-25-10 82 80.2 84 62 58.6 64 84 84.8 85 64 67.4 66 88 90.8 90 72 77.4 67 88 88.2 95 68 65.5 72
07-24-10 86 89.4 85 66 68.2 68 82 80.2 81 62 58.6 65 83 84.8 85 64 67.4 64 85 90.8 87 70 77.4 70
07-23-10 93 96.0 92 75 74.8 74 89 89.4 90 67 68.2 69 82 80.2 78 62 58.6 62 82 84.8 82 66 67.4 67
07-22-10 83 90.6 84 77 72.4 75 93 96.0 95 75 74.8 74 87 89.4 87 69 68.2 70 83 80.2 80 63 58.6 65
07-21-10 87 95.3 91 71 69.2 72 84 90.6 79 77 72.4 73 92 96.0 92 72 74.8 76 87 89.4 87 68 68.2 67
07-20-10 80 90.2 84 71 71.8 71 88 95.3 87 72 69.2 68 85 90.6 79 75 72.4 70 90 96.0 92 70 74.8 74
07-19-10 85 87.9 91 67 69.7 70 82 90.2 79 69 71.8 69 87 95.3 84 69 69.2 70 87 90.6 81 72 72.4 74
07-18-10 88 94.3 92 68 69.1 72 84 87.9 87 66 69.7 68 83 90.2 78 67 71.8 69 85 95.3 85 68 69.2 69
07-17-10 90 96.3 93 74 73.0 74 92 94.3 89 68 69.1 69 86 87.9 87 66 69.7 69 86 90.2 83 70 71.8 72
07-16-10 90 95.0 92 69 72.3 72 92 96.3 93 73 73.0 73 90 94.3 90 68 69.1 68 87 87.9 86 69 69.7 66
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 1 7 7 4 6 5 8 4 3 3 6 2 2 6 6
% Succ 23.1   7.7 53.8   53.8 33.3   50 41.7   66.7 36.4   27.3 27.3   54.5 20   20 60   60
Ave Error 4.7   4 2.1   2 3.6   4 2.3   2 3.8   5 2.8   3 3.9   5 2.5   3
Std Dev 3   2 1.5   2 2.8   4 1.6   2 2.8   4 1.9   3 3   4 2.5   3

Night Forecasts
Updated: 07-29-10 at 8:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-29-10 58   60 80   84 67   65 83   86 66   65 82   87 68   67 84   93
07-28-10 66 65.5 68 81 88.2 85 65   65 80   82 65   65 79   89 64   67 83   87
07-27-10 74 77.4 73 87 90.8 84 65 65.5 66 84 88.2 82 63   62 81   80 64   66 79   75
07-26-10 66 67.4 66 90 84.8 87 73 77.4 71 87 90.8 86 67 65.5 67 82 88.2 83 64   62 81   80
07-25-10 62 58.6 63 84 80.2 85 64 67.4 68 88 84.8 90 72 77.4 70 88 90.8 96 68 65.5 67 82 88.2 80
07-24-10 66 68.2 70 82 89.4 80 62 58.6 64 83 80.2 83 64 67.4 65 85 84.8 87 71 77.4 70 91 90.8 85
07-23-10 75 74.8 79 87 96.0 97 66 68.2 72 82 89.4 83 62 58.6 66 83 80.2 83 64 67.4 67 89 84.8 86
07-22-10 77 72.4 77 92 90.6 96 75 74.8 75 89 96.0 93 67 68.2 68 82 89.4 82 63 58.6 63 82 80.2 80
07-21-10 71 69.2 74 84 95.3 82 76 72.4 74 92 90.6 92 73 74.8 76 87 96.0 89 68 68.2 71 82 89.4 79
07-20-10 70 71.8 70 84 90.2 86 70 69.2 69 84 95.3 77 75 72.4 70 92 90.6 91 70 74.8 72 85 96.0 78
07-19-10 68 69.7 72 83 87.9 87 69 71.8 71 87 90.2 86 69 69.2 71 87 95.3 84 72 72.4 76 90 90.6 95
07-18-10 68 69.1 73 84 94.3 89 65 69.7 71 82 87.9 85 69 71.8 71 89 90.2 83 68 69.2 71 87 95.3 78
07-17-10 74 73.0 10 89 96.3 27 68 69.1 17 85 94.3 27 66 69.7 24 86 87.9 31 70 71.8 31 92 90.2 32
07-16-10 70 72.3 73 92 95.0 93 73 73.0 75 89 96.3 91 68 69.1 71 87 94.3 89 69 69.7 69 86 87.9 76
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 8 4 1 3 5 8 1 1 5 6 4 1 5 4 5 2
% Succ 61.5   30.8 7.7   23.1 41.7   66.7 8.3   8.3 45.5   54.5 36.4   9.1 50   40 50   20
Ave Error 2   8 6.2   10 2.3   6 5.6   11 2.5   7 4.4   10 2.6   7 4.3   14
Std Dev 1.3   16 3.2   18 1.7   5 3.4   8 1.8   5 3.6   7 2.4   5 4   11