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WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
| Updated: 03-18-10 at 1:55 am |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 03-18-10 |
40 |
|
33 |
61 |
|
61 |
41 |
|
38 |
57 |
|
60 |
38 |
|
34 |
43 |
|
35 |
28 |
|
26 |
43 |
|
40 |
| 03-16-10 |
34 |
37.9 |
33 |
56 |
65.8 |
57 |
34 |
|
32 |
56 |
|
58 |
35 |
|
38 |
58 |
|
62 |
40 |
|
43 |
57 |
|
60 |
| 03-14-10 |
38 |
35.1 |
39 |
48 |
48.0 |
46 |
35 |
37.9 |
38 |
52 |
65.8 |
54 |
36 |
|
34 |
51 |
|
56 |
36 |
|
33 |
53 |
|
56 |
| 03-12-10 |
41 |
40.7 |
42 |
54 |
45.1 |
55 |
43 |
35.1 |
40 |
50 |
48.0 |
44 |
38 |
37.9 |
39 |
48 |
65.8 |
47 |
36 |
|
36 |
50 |
|
59 |
| 03-10-10 |
42 |
46.2 |
43 |
60 |
59.1 |
60 |
42 |
40.7 |
46 |
52 |
45.1 |
56 |
42 |
35.1 |
50 |
49 |
48.0 |
56 |
39 |
37.9 |
43 |
46 |
65.8 |
46 |
| 03-08-10 |
34 |
45.0 |
27 |
44 |
49.4 |
51 |
35 |
46.2 |
34 |
45 |
59.1 |
54 |
40 |
40.7 |
46 |
47 |
45.1 |
59 |
39 |
35.1 |
48 |
46 |
48.0 |
52 |
| 03-06-10 |
23 |
33.3 |
14 |
45 |
49.6 |
44 |
33 |
45.0 |
21 |
43 |
49.4 |
41 |
32 |
46.2 |
36 |
44 |
59.1 |
51 |
33 |
40.7 |
42 |
44 |
45.1 |
48 |
| 03-04-10 |
23 |
21.7 |
16 |
38 |
38.3 |
33 |
21 |
33.3 |
14 |
39 |
49.6 |
39 |
24 |
45.0 |
15 |
45 |
49.4 |
46 |
35 |
46.2 |
32 |
45 |
59.1 |
50 |
| 03-02-10 |
24 |
21.9 |
21 |
34 |
40.5 |
32 |
23 |
21.7 |
18 |
36 |
38.3 |
33 |
20 |
33.3 |
17 |
37 |
49.6 |
31 |
20 |
45.0 |
15 |
40 |
49.4 |
44 |
| 02-28-10 |
28 |
26.4 |
26 |
35 |
37.4 |
35 |
26 |
21.9 |
23 |
34 |
40.5 |
32 |
24 |
21.7 |
23 |
34 |
38.3 |
32 |
21 |
33.3 |
18 |
36 |
49.6 |
29 |
| 02-26-10 |
15 |
33.1 |
10 |
30 |
34.0 |
28 |
22 |
26.4 |
18 |
32 |
37.4 |
29 |
21 |
21.9 |
25 |
34 |
40.5 |
33 |
24 |
21.7 |
24 |
33 |
38.3 |
32 |
| 02-24-10 |
20 |
18.1 |
14 |
28 |
29.8 |
18 |
13 |
33.1 |
14 |
24 |
34.0 |
25 |
11 |
26.4 |
17 |
30 |
37.4 |
28 |
16 |
21.9 |
21 |
32 |
40.5 |
29 |
| 02-22-10 |
29 |
21.7 |
29 |
33 |
35.2 |
33 |
23 |
18.1 |
21 |
28 |
29.8 |
28 |
16 |
33.1 |
17 |
27 |
34.0 |
20 |
13 |
26.4 |
8 |
27 |
37.4 |
20 |
| 02-20-10 |
27 |
32.1 |
28 |
34 |
35.6 |
36 |
29 |
21.7 |
28 |
33 |
35.2 |
33 |
27 |
18.1 |
27 |
32 |
29.8 |
30 |
21 |
33.1 |
21 |
32 |
34.0 |
25 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
4 |
|
3 |
5 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
0 |
| % Succ |
30.8 |
|
23.1 |
38.5 |
|
30.8 |
16.7 |
|
16.7 |
16.7 |
|
8.3 |
27.3 |
|
18.2 |
18.2 |
|
9.1 |
10 |
|
20 |
30 |
|
0 |
| Ave Error |
5.4 |
|
7 |
3.7 |
|
5 |
7.5 |
|
9 |
6.8 |
|
7 |
9.2 |
|
11 |
7.3 |
|
10 |
9.5 |
|
11 |
8.6 |
|
11 |
| Std Dev |
5.1 |
|
8 |
3.2 |
|
4 |
6.1 |
|
8 |
4.7 |
|
4 |
8 |
|
10 |
6.4 |
|
7 |
8.5 |
|
10 |
7.6 |
|
9 |
|
|
|
Afternoon Forecasts
| Updated: 03-18-10 at 8:55 am |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 03-18-10 |
67 |
|
65 |
44 |
|
40 |
62 |
|
63 |
35 |
|
33 |
35 |
|
35 |
28 |
|
29 |
39 |
|
37 |
30 |
|
34 |
| 03-17-10 |
62 |
65.8 |
56 |
38 |
37.2 |
32 |
66 |
|
61 |
43 |
|
40 |
57 |
|
58 |
37 |
|
39 |
46 |
|
40 |
33 |
|
27 |
| 03-16-10 |
58 |
62.1 |
58 |
32 |
28.4 |
32 |
59 |
65.8 |
58 |
36 |
37.2 |
35 |
68 |
|
60 |
46 |
|
41 |
57 |
|
60 |
41 |
|
47 |
| 03-15-10 |
51 |
48.0 |
52 |
35 |
32.7 |
34 |
55 |
62.1 |
58 |
35 |
28.4 |
34 |
56 |
65.8 |
58 |
36 |
37.2 |
36 |
58 |
|
63 |
39 |
|
41 |
| 03-13-10 |
46 |
49.8 |
47 |
38 |
41.1 |
41 |
48 |
48.0 |
50 |
35 |
32.7 |
37 |
53 |
62.1 |
58 |
34 |
28.4 |
34 |
51 |
65.8 |
56 |
35 |
37.2 |
41 |
| 03-12-10 |
54 |
54.7 |
56 |
41 |
42.4 |
43 |
44 |
49.8 |
48 |
38 |
41.1 |
40 |
46 |
48.0 |
52 |
36 |
32.7 |
33 |
50 |
62.1 |
58 |
35 |
28.4 |
32 |
| 03-11-10 |
57 |
59.1 |
54 |
42 |
40.2 |
44 |
51 |
54.7 |
56 |
40 |
42.4 |
41 |
48 |
49.8 |
44 |
38 |
41.1 |
42 |
48 |
48.0 |
50 |
37 |
32.7 |
42 |
| 03-10-10 |
53 |
63.6 |
60 |
42 |
40.6 |
45 |
52 |
59.1 |
57 |
43 |
40.2 |
48 |
48 |
54.7 |
56 |
39 |
42.4 |
42 |
46 |
49.8 |
47 |
36 |
41.1 |
41 |
| 03-09-10 |
47 |
49.4 |
49 |
42 |
45.0 |
44 |
51 |
63.6 |
62 |
44 |
40.6 |
46 |
50 |
59.1 |
51 |
39 |
40.2 |
47 |
48 |
54.7 |
54 |
40 |
42.4 |
43 |
| 03-08-10 |
45 |
46.8 |
52 |
34 |
31.3 |
31 |
45 |
49.4 |
48 |
41 |
45.0 |
41 |
51 |
63.6 |
57 |
42 |
40.6 |
50 |
50 |
59.1 |
54 |
41 |
40.2 |
48 |
| 03-07-10 |
43 |
49.6 |
47 |
34 |
33.3 |
30 |
45 |
46.8 |
56 |
35 |
31.3 |
37 |
45 |
49.4 |
54 |
40 |
45.0 |
41 |
47 |
63.6 |
53 |
41 |
40.6 |
48 |
| 03-06-10 |
41 |
50.4 |
48 |
33 |
24.2 |
23 |
43 |
49.6 |
44 |
33 |
33.3 |
34 |
44 |
46.8 |
51 |
35 |
31.3 |
40 |
45 |
49.4 |
46 |
35 |
45.0 |
41 |
| 03-05-10 |
41 |
38.3 |
44 |
25 |
18.1 |
19 |
45 |
50.4 |
47 |
34 |
24.2 |
29 |
45 |
49.6 |
38 |
34 |
33.3 |
34 |
44 |
46.8 |
56 |
33 |
31.3 |
35 |
| 03-04-10 |
38 |
44.2 |
41 |
20 |
22.6 |
22 |
39 |
38.3 |
42 |
23 |
18.1 |
18 |
43 |
50.4 |
50 |
34 |
24.2 |
30 |
45 |
49.6 |
43 |
34 |
33.3 |
35 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
2 |
|
2 |
5 |
|
8 |
3 |
|
5 |
2 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
2 |
4 |
|
5 |
1 |
|
2 |
4 |
|
3 |
| % Succ |
15.4 |
|
15.4 |
38.5 |
|
61.5 |
25 |
|
41.7 |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
18.2 |
|
18.2 |
36.4 |
|
45.5 |
10 |
|
20 |
40 |
|
30 |
| Ave Error |
4.4 |
|
4 |
3 |
|
2 |
5.2 |
|
4 |
3.7 |
|
4 |
6.4 |
|
5 |
3.5 |
|
4 |
7.5 |
|
5 |
3.4 |
|
4 |
| Std Dev |
3.1 |
|
2 |
2.4 |
|
2 |
3.7 |
|
3 |
2.2 |
|
3 |
4.6 |
|
3 |
2.3 |
|
3 |
6.1 |
|
4 |
2.6 |
|
4 |
|
|
|
Evening Forecasts
| Updated: 03-17-10 at 1:55 pm |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 03-17-10 |
62 |
|
64 |
38 |
|
33 |
66 |
|
63 |
43 |
|
40 |
57 |
|
58 |
37 |
|
39 |
46 |
|
41 |
33 |
|
27 |
| 03-16-10 |
58 |
62.1 |
63 |
32 |
28.4 |
35 |
59 |
|
59 |
36 |
|
35 |
68 |
|
60 |
46 |
|
41 |
57 |
|
61 |
41 |
|
47 |
| 03-15-10 |
49 |
48.0 |
52 |
35 |
32.7 |
34 |
55 |
62.1 |
59 |
35 |
28.4 |
34 |
56 |
|
55 |
36 |
|
39 |
58 |
|
62 |
40 |
|
44 |
| 03-13-10 |
46 |
49.8 |
47 |
38 |
41.1 |
40 |
48 |
48.0 |
47 |
35 |
32.7 |
37 |
53 |
62.1 |
57 |
34 |
28.4 |
33 |
51 |
|
55 |
36 |
|
40 |
| 03-12-10 |
54 |
54.7 |
58 |
41 |
42.4 |
43 |
44 |
49.8 |
47 |
38 |
41.1 |
40 |
46 |
48.0 |
52 |
35 |
32.7 |
34 |
47 |
62.1 |
58 |
34 |
28.4 |
32 |
| 03-11-10 |
58 |
59.1 |
53 |
42 |
40.2 |
43 |
51 |
54.7 |
53 |
40 |
42.4 |
41 |
48 |
49.8 |
45 |
38 |
41.1 |
41 |
48 |
48.0 |
49 |
37 |
32.7 |
41 |
| 03-10-10 |
53 |
63.6 |
59 |
42 |
40.6 |
47 |
52 |
59.1 |
59 |
43 |
40.2 |
50 |
48 |
54.7 |
58 |
39 |
42.4 |
43 |
47 |
49.8 |
47 |
35 |
41.1 |
41 |
| 03-09-10 |
52 |
49.4 |
48 |
42 |
45.0 |
43 |
51 |
63.6 |
62 |
44 |
40.6 |
47 |
50 |
59.1 |
53 |
39 |
40.2 |
47 |
48 |
54.7 |
54 |
40 |
42.4 |
43 |
| 03-08-10 |
43 |
46.8 |
50 |
34 |
31.3 |
33 |
45 |
49.4 |
46 |
41 |
45.0 |
40 |
51 |
63.6 |
57 |
42 |
40.6 |
51 |
50 |
59.1 |
55 |
39 |
40.2 |
48 |
| 03-07-10 |
43 |
49.6 |
53 |
34 |
33.3 |
31 |
45 |
46.8 |
56 |
35 |
31.3 |
38 |
45 |
49.4 |
54 |
40 |
45.0 |
42 |
47 |
63.6 |
54 |
39 |
40.6 |
49 |
| 03-06-10 |
41 |
50.4 |
50 |
33 |
24.2 |
23 |
43 |
49.6 |
42 |
33 |
33.3 |
33 |
44 |
46.8 |
49 |
35 |
31.3 |
39 |
45 |
49.4 |
45 |
35 |
45.0 |
40 |
| 03-05-10 |
40 |
38.3 |
42 |
23 |
18.1 |
18 |
45 |
50.4 |
48 |
33 |
24.2 |
29 |
43 |
49.6 |
39 |
32 |
33.3 |
34 |
44 |
46.8 |
57 |
34 |
31.3 |
36 |
| 03-04-10 |
40 |
44.2 |
42 |
22 |
22.6 |
20 |
40 |
38.3 |
42 |
24 |
18.1 |
17 |
45 |
50.4 |
51 |
34 |
24.2 |
29 |
45 |
49.6 |
43 |
34 |
33.3 |
35 |
| 03-03-10 |
38 |
40.5 |
39 |
23 |
19.3 |
18 |
38 |
44.2 |
34 |
21 |
22.6 |
14 |
39 |
38.3 |
42 |
24 |
18.1 |
18 |
45 |
50.4 |
52 |
35 |
24.2 |
32 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
4 |
|
4 |
5 |
|
8 |
3 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
4 |
3 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
5 |
1 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
3 |
| % Succ |
30.8 |
|
30.8 |
38.5 |
|
61.5 |
25 |
|
33.3 |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
27.3 |
|
9.1 |
27.3 |
|
45.5 |
10 |
|
30 |
30 |
|
30 |
| Ave Error |
4 |
|
3 |
2.9 |
|
2 |
5.2 |
|
4 |
3.7 |
|
5 |
5.6 |
|
5 |
3.9 |
|
4 |
6.8 |
|
5 |
4.5 |
|
5 |
| Std Dev |
3.2 |
|
2 |
2.2 |
|
2 |
3.7 |
|
3 |
2.6 |
|
3 |
4.3 |
|
3 |
2.5 |
|
4 |
6.4 |
|
4 |
3.3 |
|
4 |
|
|
|
Night Forecasts
| Updated: 03-17-10 at 8:55 pm |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 03-17-10 |
40 |
|
34 |
61 |
|
64 |
41 |
|
40 |
57 |
|
59 |
38 |
|
35 |
43 |
|
37 |
28 |
|
27 |
43 |
|
41 |
| 03-16-10 |
33 |
28.4 |
32 |
61 |
62.1 |
61 |
38 |
|
34 |
65 |
|
62 |
42 |
|
41 |
54 |
|
60 |
40 |
|
45 |
47 |
|
57 |
| 03-15-10 |
35 |
32.7 |
33 |
56 |
48.0 |
58 |
34 |
28.4 |
32 |
56 |
62.1 |
57 |
35 |
|
34 |
58 |
|
64 |
40 |
|
40 |
57 |
|
63 |
| 03-13-10 |
38 |
41.1 |
40 |
48 |
49.8 |
48 |
35 |
32.7 |
38 |
52 |
48.0 |
55 |
36 |
28.4 |
32 |
51 |
62.1 |
59 |
36 |
|
39 |
53 |
|
55 |
| 03-12-10 |
41 |
42.4 |
42 |
40 |
54.7 |
47 |
39 |
41.1 |
42 |
45 |
49.8 |
48 |
35 |
32.7 |
34 |
47 |
48.0 |
57 |
34 |
28.4 |
32 |
51 |
62.1 |
54 |
| 03-11-10 |
41 |
40.3 |
42 |
54 |
59.1 |
59 |
43 |
42.4 |
43 |
50 |
54.7 |
47 |
38 |
41.1 |
41 |
48 |
49.8 |
50 |
36 |
32.7 |
36 |
50 |
48.0 |
58 |
| 03-10-10 |
42 |
40.6 |
46 |
51 |
63.6 |
58 |
43 |
40.3 |
47 |
47 |
59.1 |
58 |
39 |
42.4 |
46 |
47 |
54.7 |
52 |
35 |
41.1 |
41 |
46 |
49.8 |
44 |
| 03-09-10 |
43 |
45.0 |
42 |
60 |
49.4 |
59 |
42 |
40.6 |
48 |
52 |
63.6 |
54 |
42 |
40.3 |
48 |
49 |
59.1 |
58 |
39 |
42.4 |
42 |
46 |
54.7 |
52 |
| 03-08-10 |
33 |
31.3 |
31 |
44 |
46.8 |
52 |
41 |
45.0 |
43 |
51 |
49.4 |
57 |
43 |
40.6 |
54 |
50 |
63.6 |
57 |
39 |
40.3 |
48 |
46 |
59.1 |
52 |
| 03-07-10 |
33 |
33.3 |
30 |
44 |
49.6 |
52 |
35 |
31.3 |
35 |
45 |
46.8 |
55 |
40 |
45.0 |
43 |
47 |
49.4 |
49 |
39 |
40.6 |
45 |
46 |
63.6 |
49 |
| 03-06-10 |
30 |
24.2 |
19 |
43 |
50.4 |
36 |
34 |
33.3 |
30 |
42 |
49.6 |
49 |
35 |
31.3 |
38 |
45 |
46.8 |
53 |
40 |
45.0 |
45 |
47 |
49.4 |
50 |
| 03-05-10 |
23 |
18.1 |
13 |
45 |
38.3 |
44 |
33 |
24.2 |
23 |
43 |
50.4 |
42 |
32 |
33.3 |
31 |
44 |
49.6 |
60 |
33 |
31.3 |
41 |
44 |
46.8 |
48 |
| 03-04-10 |
23 |
22.6 |
14 |
40 |
44.2 |
39 |
24 |
18.1 |
14 |
45 |
38.3 |
46 |
34 |
24.2 |
27 |
45 |
50.4 |
41 |
34 |
33.3 |
35 |
47 |
49.6 |
44 |
| 03-03-10 |
23 |
19.3 |
16 |
38 |
40.5 |
32 |
21 |
22.6 |
15 |
39 |
44.2 |
40 |
24 |
18.1 |
16 |
45 |
38.3 |
47 |
35 |
24.2 |
29 |
45 |
50.4 |
41 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
7 |
|
5 |
2 |
|
3 |
4 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
3 |
4 |
|
4 |
1 |
|
2 |
| % Succ |
53.8 |
|
38.5 |
15.4 |
|
23.1 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
16.7 |
|
25 |
18.2 |
|
27.3 |
27.3 |
|
27.3 |
40 |
|
40 |
10 |
|
20 |
| Ave Error |
2.5 |
|
3 |
6.4 |
|
6 |
3.3 |
|
4 |
6.1 |
|
6 |
4.2 |
|
4 |
6.1 |
|
5 |
4 |
|
4 |
7 |
|
7 |
| Std Dev |
1.8 |
|
3 |
4.3 |
|
4 |
2.6 |
|
3 |
4 |
|
4 |
2.7 |
|
4 |
5.1 |
|
4 |
2.9 |
|
3 |
6.3 |
|
5 |
|
|
|