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WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
| Updated: 07-29-10 at 2:55 am |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 07-29-10 |
67 |
|
66 |
81 |
|
84 |
65 |
|
62 |
80 |
|
84 |
65 |
|
64 |
79 |
|
84 |
64 |
|
66 |
83 |
|
86 |
| 07-28-10 |
74 |
69.4 |
77 |
87 |
88.2 |
89 |
65 |
|
69 |
84 |
|
84 |
63 |
|
64 |
81 |
|
81 |
64 |
|
68 |
79 |
|
79 |
| 07-27-10 |
66 |
78.9 |
68 |
90 |
90.8 |
88 |
73 |
69.4 |
70 |
87 |
88.2 |
87 |
67 |
|
67 |
82 |
|
81 |
64 |
|
62 |
81 |
|
82 |
| 07-26-10 |
62 |
69.7 |
58 |
84 |
84.8 |
84 |
64 |
78.9 |
65 |
88 |
90.8 |
89 |
72 |
69.4 |
69 |
88 |
88.2 |
93 |
68 |
|
69 |
82 |
|
82 |
| 07-25-10 |
66 |
60.0 |
73 |
82 |
80.2 |
82 |
62 |
69.7 |
63 |
83 |
84.8 |
85 |
64 |
78.9 |
64 |
85 |
90.8 |
90 |
71 |
69.4 |
68 |
91 |
88.2 |
89 |
| 07-23-10 |
76 |
74.3 |
78 |
92 |
89.4 |
100 |
75 |
60.0 |
76 |
89 |
80.2 |
96 |
67 |
69.7 |
70 |
82 |
84.8 |
83 |
63 |
78.9 |
65 |
82 |
90.8 |
81 |
| 07-22-10 |
71 |
80.3 |
70 |
84 |
90.6 |
80 |
76 |
74.3 |
76 |
92 |
89.4 |
97 |
73 |
60.0 |
74 |
87 |
80.2 |
88 |
68 |
69.7 |
72 |
82 |
84.8 |
78 |
| 07-21-10 |
70 |
70.4 |
73 |
84 |
95.3 |
89 |
70 |
80.3 |
69 |
84 |
90.6 |
79 |
75 |
74.3 |
72 |
92 |
89.4 |
89 |
70 |
60.0 |
76 |
85 |
80.2 |
91 |
| 07-20-10 |
68 |
74.6 |
71 |
83 |
90.2 |
90 |
69 |
70.4 |
71 |
87 |
95.3 |
85 |
69 |
80.3 |
72 |
87 |
90.6 |
76 |
72 |
74.3 |
73 |
90 |
89.4 |
92 |
| 07-19-10 |
68 |
71.4 |
71 |
84 |
87.9 |
90 |
65 |
74.6 |
71 |
82 |
90.2 |
84 |
69 |
70.4 |
70 |
89 |
95.3 |
83 |
68 |
80.3 |
71 |
87 |
90.6 |
77 |
| 07-18-10 |
70 |
72.8 |
10 |
89 |
94.3 |
27 |
68 |
71.4 |
17 |
85 |
87.9 |
27 |
66 |
74.6 |
24 |
86 |
90.2 |
31 |
70 |
70.4 |
31 |
92 |
95.3 |
32 |
| 07-17-10 |
71 |
76.0 |
72 |
92 |
96.3 |
91 |
73 |
72.8 |
73 |
89 |
94.3 |
89 |
68 |
71.4 |
68 |
87 |
87.9 |
87 |
69 |
74.6 |
68 |
86 |
90.2 |
84 |
| 07-16-10 |
67 |
74.3 |
67 |
91 |
95.0 |
89 |
70 |
76.0 |
71 |
91 |
96.3 |
92 |
72 |
72.8 |
74 |
90 |
94.3 |
90 |
69 |
71.4 |
68 |
87 |
87.9 |
89 |
| 07-15-10 |
76 |
68.0 |
77 |
91 |
92.5 |
90 |
67 |
74.3 |
70 |
90 |
95.0 |
87 |
70 |
76.0 |
69 |
89 |
96.3 |
90 |
69 |
72.8 |
72 |
89 |
94.3 |
86 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
2 |
|
1 |
5 |
|
4 |
3 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
4 |
3 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
| % Succ |
15.4 |
|
7.7 |
38.5 |
|
30.8 |
25 |
|
33.3 |
16.7 |
|
25 |
27.3 |
|
36.4 |
18.2 |
|
36.4 |
30 |
|
30 |
20 |
|
20 |
| Ave Error |
5.8 |
|
11 |
3.9 |
|
9 |
6.8 |
|
10 |
4.9 |
|
11 |
5.9 |
|
9 |
4.1 |
|
10 |
5.6 |
|
9 |
3.7 |
|
12 |
| Std Dev |
3.6 |
|
16 |
3.1 |
|
17 |
5.5 |
|
15 |
3.2 |
|
16 |
5.6 |
|
14 |
2.8 |
|
17 |
5.8 |
|
8 |
3.1 |
|
9 |
|
|
|
Afternoon Forecasts
| Updated: 07-29-10 at 8:55 am |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 07-29-10 |
81 |
|
84 |
67 |
|
65 |
80 |
|
87 |
67 |
|
66 |
79 |
|
87 |
64 |
|
67 |
83 |
|
91 |
67 |
|
70 |
| 07-28-10 |
85 |
88.2 |
89 |
65 |
65.5 |
69 |
82 |
|
85 |
65 |
|
67 |
80 |
|
82 |
66 |
|
68 |
79 |
|
81 |
65 |
|
67 |
| 07-27-10 |
85 |
90.8 |
88 |
75 |
77.4 |
70 |
85 |
88.2 |
86 |
65 |
65.5 |
66 |
85 |
|
83 |
65 |
|
63 |
85 |
|
83 |
65 |
|
67 |
| 07-26-10 |
84 |
84.8 |
84 |
69 |
67.4 |
65 |
88 |
90.8 |
87 |
74 |
77.4 |
68 |
87 |
88.2 |
91 |
68 |
65.5 |
65 |
82 |
|
79 |
65 |
|
59 |
| 07-25-10 |
82 |
80.2 |
83 |
62 |
58.6 |
63 |
84 |
84.8 |
85 |
64 |
67.4 |
64 |
88 |
90.8 |
89 |
72 |
77.4 |
68 |
88 |
88.2 |
95 |
70 |
65.5 |
72 |
| 07-24-10 |
86 |
89.4 |
87 |
66 |
68.2 |
68 |
82 |
80.2 |
80 |
62 |
58.6 |
65 |
83 |
84.8 |
85 |
64 |
67.4 |
65 |
85 |
90.8 |
86 |
70 |
77.4 |
70 |
| 07-23-10 |
93 |
96.0 |
92 |
75 |
74.8 |
73 |
89 |
89.4 |
91 |
67 |
68.2 |
69 |
82 |
80.2 |
77 |
62 |
58.6 |
62 |
82 |
84.8 |
82 |
66 |
67.4 |
67 |
| 07-22-10 |
84 |
90.6 |
80 |
77 |
72.4 |
73 |
93 |
96.0 |
92 |
75 |
74.8 |
72 |
87 |
89.4 |
86 |
69 |
68.2 |
69 |
83 |
80.2 |
80 |
63 |
58.6 |
65 |
| 07-21-10 |
87 |
95.3 |
89 |
71 |
69.2 |
70 |
84 |
90.6 |
78 |
77 |
72.4 |
73 |
92 |
96.0 |
92 |
72 |
74.8 |
76 |
85 |
89.4 |
87 |
66 |
68.2 |
67 |
| 07-20-10 |
82 |
90.2 |
87 |
71 |
71.8 |
71 |
88 |
95.3 |
87 |
72 |
69.2 |
69 |
85 |
90.6 |
80 |
75 |
72.4 |
71 |
90 |
96.0 |
91 |
70 |
74.8 |
74 |
| 07-19-10 |
85 |
87.9 |
90 |
67 |
69.7 |
69 |
82 |
90.2 |
78 |
69 |
71.8 |
68 |
87 |
95.3 |
83 |
69 |
69.2 |
70 |
87 |
90.6 |
80 |
72 |
72.4 |
73 |
| 07-18-10 |
89 |
94.3 |
10 |
68 |
69.1 |
27 |
84 |
87.9 |
17 |
66 |
69.7 |
27 |
83 |
90.2 |
24 |
67 |
71.8 |
31 |
85 |
95.3 |
31 |
68 |
69.2 |
32 |
| 07-17-10 |
90 |
96.3 |
93 |
74 |
73.0 |
74 |
92 |
94.3 |
89 |
68 |
69.1 |
69 |
86 |
87.9 |
87 |
66 |
69.7 |
69 |
86 |
90.2 |
83 |
70 |
71.8 |
72 |
| 07-16-10 |
90 |
95.0 |
89 |
69 |
72.4 |
67 |
92 |
96.3 |
89 |
73 |
73.0 |
71 |
90 |
94.3 |
91 |
68 |
69.1 |
68 |
87 |
87.9 |
87 |
68 |
69.7 |
66 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
2 |
|
2 |
7 |
|
7 |
3 |
|
3 |
5 |
|
6 |
4 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
7 |
2 |
|
2 |
5 |
|
5 |
| % Succ |
15.4 |
|
15.4 |
53.8 |
|
53.8 |
25 |
|
25 |
41.7 |
|
50 |
36.4 |
|
27.3 |
27.3 |
|
63.6 |
20 |
|
20 |
50 |
|
50 |
| Ave Error |
4.7 |
|
10 |
2 |
|
5 |
3.7 |
|
11 |
2.3 |
|
6 |
3.8 |
|
10 |
2.8 |
|
6 |
4.1 |
|
11 |
3 |
|
6 |
| Std Dev |
2.6 |
|
22 |
1.3 |
|
11 |
2.8 |
|
19 |
1.6 |
|
11 |
2.8 |
|
8 |
1.9 |
|
5 |
3 |
|
9 |
2.6 |
|
5 |
|
|
|
Evening Forecasts
| Updated: 07-29-10 at 1:55 pm |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 07-29-10 |
81 |
|
85 |
67 |
|
64 |
80 |
|
86 |
67 |
|
67 |
79 |
|
88 |
64 |
|
66 |
83 |
|
90 |
67 |
|
68 |
| 07-28-10 |
85 |
88.2 |
91 |
65 |
65.5 |
71 |
82 |
|
86 |
65 |
|
68 |
80 |
|
82 |
66 |
|
67 |
79 |
|
81 |
64 |
|
66 |
| 07-27-10 |
89 |
90.8 |
91 |
73 |
77.4 |
73 |
87 |
88.2 |
85 |
66 |
65.5 |
68 |
82 |
|
83 |
64 |
|
63 |
81 |
|
84 |
66 |
|
67 |
| 07-26-10 |
84 |
84.8 |
89 |
69 |
67.4 |
68 |
88 |
90.8 |
90 |
74 |
77.4 |
69 |
87 |
88.2 |
93 |
68 |
65.5 |
65 |
82 |
|
81 |
65 |
|
60 |
| 07-25-10 |
82 |
80.2 |
84 |
62 |
58.6 |
64 |
84 |
84.8 |
85 |
64 |
67.4 |
66 |
88 |
90.8 |
90 |
72 |
77.4 |
67 |
88 |
88.2 |
95 |
68 |
65.5 |
72 |
| 07-24-10 |
86 |
89.4 |
85 |
66 |
68.2 |
68 |
82 |
80.2 |
81 |
62 |
58.6 |
65 |
83 |
84.8 |
85 |
64 |
67.4 |
64 |
85 |
90.8 |
87 |
70 |
77.4 |
70 |
| 07-23-10 |
93 |
96.0 |
92 |
75 |
74.8 |
74 |
89 |
89.4 |
90 |
67 |
68.2 |
69 |
82 |
80.2 |
78 |
62 |
58.6 |
62 |
82 |
84.8 |
82 |
66 |
67.4 |
67 |
| 07-22-10 |
83 |
90.6 |
84 |
77 |
72.4 |
75 |
93 |
96.0 |
95 |
75 |
74.8 |
74 |
87 |
89.4 |
87 |
69 |
68.2 |
70 |
83 |
80.2 |
80 |
63 |
58.6 |
65 |
| 07-21-10 |
87 |
95.3 |
91 |
71 |
69.2 |
72 |
84 |
90.6 |
79 |
77 |
72.4 |
73 |
92 |
96.0 |
92 |
72 |
74.8 |
76 |
87 |
89.4 |
87 |
68 |
68.2 |
67 |
| 07-20-10 |
80 |
90.2 |
84 |
71 |
71.8 |
71 |
88 |
95.3 |
87 |
72 |
69.2 |
68 |
85 |
90.6 |
79 |
75 |
72.4 |
70 |
90 |
96.0 |
92 |
70 |
74.8 |
74 |
| 07-19-10 |
85 |
87.9 |
91 |
67 |
69.7 |
70 |
82 |
90.2 |
79 |
69 |
71.8 |
69 |
87 |
95.3 |
84 |
69 |
69.2 |
70 |
87 |
90.6 |
81 |
72 |
72.4 |
74 |
| 07-18-10 |
88 |
94.3 |
92 |
68 |
69.1 |
72 |
84 |
87.9 |
87 |
66 |
69.7 |
68 |
83 |
90.2 |
78 |
67 |
71.8 |
69 |
85 |
95.3 |
85 |
68 |
69.2 |
69 |
| 07-17-10 |
90 |
96.3 |
93 |
74 |
73.0 |
74 |
92 |
94.3 |
89 |
68 |
69.1 |
69 |
86 |
87.9 |
87 |
66 |
69.7 |
69 |
86 |
90.2 |
83 |
70 |
71.8 |
72 |
| 07-16-10 |
90 |
95.0 |
92 |
69 |
72.3 |
72 |
92 |
96.3 |
93 |
73 |
73.0 |
73 |
90 |
94.3 |
90 |
68 |
69.1 |
68 |
87 |
87.9 |
86 |
69 |
69.7 |
66 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
3 |
|
1 |
7 |
|
7 |
4 |
|
6 |
5 |
|
8 |
4 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
6 |
2 |
|
2 |
6 |
|
6 |
| % Succ |
23.1 |
|
7.7 |
53.8 |
|
53.8 |
33.3 |
|
50 |
41.7 |
|
66.7 |
36.4 |
|
27.3 |
27.3 |
|
54.5 |
20 |
|
20 |
60 |
|
60 |
| Ave Error |
4.7 |
|
4 |
2.1 |
|
2 |
3.6 |
|
4 |
2.3 |
|
2 |
3.8 |
|
5 |
2.8 |
|
3 |
3.9 |
|
5 |
2.5 |
|
3 |
| Std Dev |
3 |
|
2 |
1.5 |
|
2 |
2.8 |
|
4 |
1.6 |
|
2 |
2.8 |
|
4 |
1.9 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
4 |
2.5 |
|
3 |
|
|
|
Night Forecasts
| Updated: 07-29-10 at 8:55 pm |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 07-29-10 |
58 |
|
60 |
80 |
|
84 |
67 |
|
65 |
83 |
|
86 |
66 |
|
65 |
82 |
|
87 |
68 |
|
67 |
84 |
|
93 |
| 07-28-10 |
66 |
65.5 |
68 |
81 |
88.2 |
85 |
65 |
|
65 |
80 |
|
82 |
65 |
|
65 |
79 |
|
89 |
64 |
|
67 |
83 |
|
87 |
| 07-27-10 |
74 |
77.4 |
73 |
87 |
90.8 |
84 |
65 |
65.5 |
66 |
84 |
88.2 |
82 |
63 |
|
62 |
81 |
|
80 |
64 |
|
66 |
79 |
|
75 |
| 07-26-10 |
66 |
67.4 |
66 |
90 |
84.8 |
87 |
73 |
77.4 |
71 |
87 |
90.8 |
86 |
67 |
65.5 |
67 |
82 |
88.2 |
83 |
64 |
|
62 |
81 |
|
80 |
| 07-25-10 |
62 |
58.6 |
63 |
84 |
80.2 |
85 |
64 |
67.4 |
68 |
88 |
84.8 |
90 |
72 |
77.4 |
70 |
88 |
90.8 |
96 |
68 |
65.5 |
67 |
82 |
88.2 |
80 |
| 07-24-10 |
66 |
68.2 |
70 |
82 |
89.4 |
80 |
62 |
58.6 |
64 |
83 |
80.2 |
83 |
64 |
67.4 |
65 |
85 |
84.8 |
87 |
71 |
77.4 |
70 |
91 |
90.8 |
85 |
| 07-23-10 |
75 |
74.8 |
79 |
87 |
96.0 |
97 |
66 |
68.2 |
72 |
82 |
89.4 |
83 |
62 |
58.6 |
66 |
83 |
80.2 |
83 |
64 |
67.4 |
67 |
89 |
84.8 |
86 |
| 07-22-10 |
77 |
72.4 |
77 |
92 |
90.6 |
96 |
75 |
74.8 |
75 |
89 |
96.0 |
93 |
67 |
68.2 |
68 |
82 |
89.4 |
82 |
63 |
58.6 |
63 |
82 |
80.2 |
80 |
| 07-21-10 |
71 |
69.2 |
74 |
84 |
95.3 |
82 |
76 |
72.4 |
74 |
92 |
90.6 |
92 |
73 |
74.8 |
76 |
87 |
96.0 |
89 |
68 |
68.2 |
71 |
82 |
89.4 |
79 |
| 07-20-10 |
70 |
71.8 |
70 |
84 |
90.2 |
86 |
70 |
69.2 |
69 |
84 |
95.3 |
77 |
75 |
72.4 |
70 |
92 |
90.6 |
91 |
70 |
74.8 |
72 |
85 |
96.0 |
78 |
| 07-19-10 |
68 |
69.7 |
72 |
83 |
87.9 |
87 |
69 |
71.8 |
71 |
87 |
90.2 |
86 |
69 |
69.2 |
71 |
87 |
95.3 |
84 |
72 |
72.4 |
76 |
90 |
90.6 |
95 |
| 07-18-10 |
68 |
69.1 |
73 |
84 |
94.3 |
89 |
65 |
69.7 |
71 |
82 |
87.9 |
85 |
69 |
71.8 |
71 |
89 |
90.2 |
83 |
68 |
69.2 |
71 |
87 |
95.3 |
78 |
| 07-17-10 |
74 |
73.0 |
10 |
89 |
96.3 |
27 |
68 |
69.1 |
17 |
85 |
94.3 |
27 |
66 |
69.7 |
24 |
86 |
87.9 |
31 |
70 |
71.8 |
31 |
92 |
90.2 |
32 |
| 07-16-10 |
70 |
72.3 |
73 |
92 |
95.0 |
93 |
73 |
73.0 |
75 |
89 |
96.3 |
91 |
68 |
69.1 |
71 |
87 |
94.3 |
89 |
69 |
69.7 |
69 |
86 |
87.9 |
76 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
8 |
|
4 |
1 |
|
3 |
5 |
|
8 |
1 |
|
1 |
5 |
|
6 |
4 |
|
1 |
5 |
|
4 |
5 |
|
2 |
| % Succ |
61.5 |
|
30.8 |
7.7 |
|
23.1 |
41.7 |
|
66.7 |
8.3 |
|
8.3 |
45.5 |
|
54.5 |
36.4 |
|
9.1 |
50 |
|
40 |
50 |
|
20 |
| Ave Error |
2 |
|
8 |
6.2 |
|
10 |
2.3 |
|
6 |
5.6 |
|
11 |
2.5 |
|
7 |
4.4 |
|
10 |
2.6 |
|
7 |
4.3 |
|
14 |
| Std Dev |
1.3 |
|
16 |
3.2 |
|
18 |
1.7 |
|
5 |
3.4 |
|
8 |
1.8 |
|
5 |
3.6 |
|
7 |
2.4 |
|
5 |
4 |
|
11 |
|
|
|